Annual course revenue forecast.

Online course revenue depends on email list size, launch conversion rate, course price, platform fees, and launch frequency. Most solo creators generate 60-80% of annual revenue from 2-3 big launches rather than steady drip sales. Conversion rates on launches range 1-5% of the whole list, higher for warmed-up sub-segments.

10,000-person email list, 2% launch conversion = 200 students per launch. At 297 course price: 59,400 gross per launch. After 5% platform fee (Teachable, Kajabi) and 3% payment processing: 4,752 in fees, 54,648 net. Two launches per year: 109,296 annual net revenue. Solid solopreneur income.

Launch conversion is everything. Doubling list size to 20,000 at same 2% = double revenue. But doubling conversion to 4% (via better positioning, bigger promise, better sequence) at same list size also doubles revenue. Improving the 2% rate via iteration usually beats growing the list faster, because list growth costs marketing spend while conversion improvement is pure skill investment.

Quick example

With email list size of 10,000 and launch conversion of 2% (plus course price of 297 and platform fee of 5%), the result is 109,296.00. Change any figure and watch the output shift — it's often more useful to see the pattern than to memorise the formula.

Which inputs matter most

You enter Email List Size, Launch Conversion %, Course Price, Platform Fee %, and Payment Fee %. Not every input has equal weight. Flip one at a time toward extreme values to feel which ones move the needle most for your situation.

What's happening under the hood

Students per launch = list × conversion %. Gross per launch = students × price. Net per launch = gross × (1 - platform % - payment %). Annual = net × launches. The formula is listed in full below. If the number looks off, you can retrace the calculation by hand — that's the point of showing the working.

Using this as a check-in

Re-run this every three months. A single reading tells you where you stand; four readings tell you whether things are improving. The trend matters more than any individual snapshot.

What this doesn't capture

The score is a composite of the inputs you provide. Life context — job security, family obligations, health, housing — doesn't appear in the math but shapes the real picture. Use the number as a prompt, not a verdict.