Supply Chain Disruption Calculator
Supply disruption revenue impact.
Calculate revenue at risk from supply chain disruption based on duration, buffer, and recovery rate. Enter daily revenue and see the result instantly.
What this tool does
This tool calculates revenue at risk from supply chain disruption based on daily revenue, disruption days, buffer, and recovery.
Enter Values
Formula Used
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Disclaimer
Results are estimates for educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
Supply chain disruptions cost businesses revenue when inventory runs out and orders can't be fulfilled. This calculator models the financial impact: daily revenue × exposed days (disruption minus inventory buffer) × unrecoverable percentage. Helps quantify whether safety stock investment is worth the carrying cost.
50k daily revenue, 30-day disruption, 10-day inventory buffer = 20 exposed days. At 30% unrecoverable (70% can be sourced alternatively) = 300k revenue at risk. That 300k justifies significant safety stock and dual-sourcing investment. Most businesses discover this math only after the disruption hits.
COVID and Suez Canal taught hard lessons. Businesses with 30-60 days inventory weathered 2020 supply shocks. Those with just-in-time (3-5 days) suffered immediately. Post-2020 trend: inventory buffers up 20-40% across manufacturing, retail adding 2-4 weeks buffer vs pre-COVID levels. The carrying cost is insurance against disruption.
Run it with sensible defaults
Using daily revenue of 50,000, disruption duration of 30, inventory buffer of 10, revenue recovery of 70%, the calculation works out to 300,000.00. Nudge the inputs toward your own situation and the output recalculates instantly. The defaults are meant as a starting point, not a recommendation.
The levers in this calculation
The inputs — Daily Revenue, Disruption Duration (days), Inventory Buffer (days), and Revenue Recovery % — do not pull with equal force. Not every input has equal weight. Flip one at a time toward extreme values to feel which ones move the needle most for your situation.
How the math works
Exposed days = max(0, disruption - buffer). Revenue at risk = exposed × daily revenue × (1 - recovery %). The working is transparent — you can verify every step yourself in the formula section below. No black box, no opaque "proprietary model".
Using this as a check-in
Re-run this every three months. A single reading tells you where you stand; four readings tell you whether things are improving. The trend matters more than any individual snapshot.
What this doesn't capture
The score is a composite of the inputs you provide. Life context — job security, family obligations, health, housing — doesn't appear in the math but shapes the real picture. Use the number as a prompt, not a verdict.
£50,000 £/day × (30 - 10 buffer) × (1 - 70%) = $300,000.00.
Inputs
This example uses typical values for illustration. Adjust the inputs above to match a specific situation and see how the result changes.
Sources & Methodology
Methodology
Exposed days = max(0, disruption - buffer). Revenue at risk = exposed × daily revenue × (1 - recovery %).
References
Frequently Asked Questions
How to set recovery %?
What disruption length to plan for?
Inventory buffer vs insurance?
Cost of buffer vs cost of disruption?
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