Project the value of a crypto investment over time at a given return rate

What this tool assumes

Crypto investment growth follows the same compounding math as any other asset. The tool applies an annual return rate you specify to a starting principal over your chosen horizon. It does not fetch live prices, does not model volatility, and does not predict future crypto performance. It translates your assumption about future return into a projected end value and total gain.

How the math works

Final value = Principal × (1 + annual_return)^years. Total return = Final value − Principal. Annualised growth rate is simply the annual return you enter. Because the tool does not model path-dependency (sequence of returns), the final value is an idealised terminal number, not a forecast. Real crypto returns are wildly volatile — the same long-run annualised return can be reached through paths that look very different year-to-year, and a drawdown year near the end of the holding period can reduce the final balance dramatically versus the smooth projection.

Why volatility matters more than the average

Crypto's annualised volatility over most of its history has been 60-90%, several times higher than equity markets. A 20% annualised return with 80% volatility means you could easily be down 50% at any point along the way. For long-term holders this is usually irrelevant — the smooth projection approximates the outcome if you simply do not sell. For anyone who might need the money within the holding period, the projection understates the risk of being forced to sell at a loss during a drawdown.

How to pick a realistic return assumption

Historical crypto returns are unusually high partly because the asset class is young and has gone through multiple price discovery phases. Bitcoin's lifetime annualised return has been extraordinary, but that number includes the earliest near-zero-cost years. A more useful planning assumption is the rolling 10-year annualised return, which has varied widely depending on the window. Conservative planning assumes crypto returns will compress toward other asset classes as the market matures — somewhere between 5-15% nominal over the next decade is a defensible range. Using historical returns as the expected return ignores that markets typically revert as they scale.

What the tool does not model

Specifically excluded: tax on gains (capital gains treatment varies significantly by jurisdiction), exchange and withdrawal fees, spread between buy and sell prices on illiquid tokens, the impact of specific events (halvings, forks, protocol changes), and correlation with macro factors. For a full investment decision, combine this projection with scenario analysis that tests low and high return cases, and subtract realistic transaction costs from the gross result.