FinToolSuite

Equity Risk Premium Calculator

Updated April 17, 2026 · Investing · Educational use only ·

Excess equity return above Treasury yield.

Calculate equity risk premium as expected stock return minus Treasury yield. Educational tool — instant results from the numbers you enter.

What this tool does

Enter expected stock return and Treasury yield. The tool shows equity risk premium.


Enter Values

Formula Used
Expected return
Treasury yield

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Disclaimer

Results are estimates for educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.

8% expected stock return, 3% Treasury yield: 5% equity risk premium. Historical ERP 4-6% for developed markets. Higher ERP implies greater compensation for risk; lower ERP means stocks relatively expensive vs bonds.

Run it with sensible defaults

Using expected stock return of 8%, treasury yield of 3%, the calculation works out to 5.00%. Nudge the inputs toward your own situation and the output recalculates instantly. The defaults are meant as a starting point, not a recommendation.

The levers in this calculation

The inputs — Expected Stock Return and Treasury Yield — do not pull with equal force. Not every input has equal weight. Flip one at a time toward extreme values to feel which ones move the needle most for your situation.

How the math works

Standard ERP formula. The working is transparent — you can verify every step yourself in the formula section below. No black box, no opaque "proprietary model".

Using this well

Treat the output as one point on a wider map. Run it three times — a pessimistic case, a central case, and a stretch case — and plan against the pessimistic one. That habit alone separates people who stick with an investment plan from those who bail at the first wobble.

What this doesn't capture

Steady-rate math ignores real-world volatility. Actual returns are lumpy; sequence-of-returns risk matters most in drawdown; fees and taxes drag on compound growth; and behaviour changes in drawdowns can reduce outcomes below the projection. Treat the number as one scenario, not a forecast.

Related calculations worth running

Plans get firmer when you triangulate. Alongside this one, the jensens alpha calculator, the angel investment risk return calculator, and the cash on cash return calculator tend to come up in the same conversations. Running two or three together exposes inconsistencies in any single assumption — which is usually where the useful insight lives.

Example Scenario

Equity risk premium produces a figure based on the inputs provided.

Inputs

Expected Stock Return:8
Treasury Yield:3
Expected Result5.00%

This example uses typical values for illustration. Adjust the inputs above to match a specific situation and see how the result changes.

Sources & Methodology

Methodology

Standard ERP formula.

Frequently Asked Questions

Historical range?
4-6% developed markets long-term. higher (~6%) than Europe. Emerging markets often 6-10%+ but more volatile.
Forward-looking ERP?
Implied from current valuations — dividend yield + growth - Treasury. Typically 3-5% in 2020s.
Use for valuation?
CAPM cost of equity = Treasury + β × ERP. Drives discount rate in DCF models.
ERP shrinking concern?
Declining historically as markets mature. Some predict 3-4% forward — affects retirement planning assumptions.

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